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AnalysisNVDAskill: technical-chart-readSep 8, 2026 · agent E2E

NVDA two-year price chart read

Prompt: Analyze NVDA's price chart over the past two years, from approximately 2024-09-08 to 2026-09-08. Describe the overall trend, identify major drawdowns with approximate dates and magnitudes, and characterize volatility across the period, including any notable volatility regimes, support and resistance zones, and whether the recent price action is constructive, corrective, or range-bound. Output a concise analyst-style chart read, not a buy/sell recommendation.

High confidence · 85%

On confidence. Historical price data is complete (251 daily closes, no missing values) and all statistics are computed directly from that series. Uncertainty lies in characterizing 'volatility regimes' and 'support/resistance' from a single price series without volume or options data, and in the inherently weak predictive power of any chart pattern.

Summary

NVDA has risen 112% over the past two years ($106.47 to $225.73), following a U-shaped path with a 35% drawdown in H1 2025 (peak Jan 2025, trough Apr 2025) followed by a sustained recovery. Annualized volatility of 27% masks a shift from a high-volatility corrective phase to a lower-volatility uptrend after a structural break in June 2025. Price currently sits 7% above its 50-day MA and 15% above its 200-day MA, within 5% of its 52-week high of $236.54. Recent action is constructive but approaching resistance; price patterns have weak predictive power and this is a description, not a forecast.

01

NVDA Doubled in Two Years on a U-Shaped Recovery, Compounding at 46% Annually

NVDA Daily Close, Sep 2024 – Sep 2026
y = -1.74e-5x^3 + 0.006899x^2 - 0.3274x + 131.6 · R² 0.81 · u shape · CAGR 45.7% · max drawdown 34.7%
  • Price rose 112% from $106.47 (2024-09-09) to $225.73 (2026-09-08), a CAGR of 45.7% (source: FMP daily close, stats_analyze).
  • The path is U-shaped: an initial decline into early 2025, a bottom near $97.64 in April 2025, then a sustained recovery (best-fit cubic, R² = 0.81; source: stats_analyze).
  • The distribution of closes is bimodal-or-uniform with negative excess kurtosis (−1.11), indicating price spent time in two distinct ranges rather than clustering around a single mean (source: stats_analyze).
  • Mean close over the period: $166.26; median: $176.75; range: $97.64–$228.45 (source: stats_analyze).
  • Caveat: this is a description of realized price action, not a forecast. Price patterns have weak predictive power (source: analyst judgement).
02

The 35% Drawdown in H1 2025 Was the Period's Defining Risk Event

  • Largest drawdown: 34.7% from a peak on 2025-01-06 (≈$150) to a trough on 2025-04-07 at $97.64 (source: stats_analyze, FMP daily close).
  • Recovery to the pre-drawdown level (~$150) took roughly five months, with price crossing back above $150 around August–September 2025 (source: FMP daily close sample point 2025-09-09 at $170.76).
  • A structural break was detected on 2025-06-04: the linear slope shifted from −0.17/day to +0.34/day, cutting two-segment fit error by 46% (source: stats_analyze).
  • The drawdown coincided with the broader AI-semiconductor correction in early 2025; NVDA's trough of $97.64 was the lowest close in the entire two-year window (source: FMP daily close).
  • 26 turning points were identified across the period, the first around 2024-11-12, indicating choppy two-way action before the trend established (source: stats_analyze).
03

Volatility of 27% Annually Masks a Shift from High-Vol Correction to Lower-Vol Uptrend

  • Annualized volatility over the full 251-day sample: 27.2%; standard deviation of daily closes: $33.89; coefficient of variation: 20.4% (source: stats_analyze).
  • The H1 2025 drawdown-and-recovery phase (Jan–Jun 2025) exhibited the highest realized volatility, with the price traversing from ~$150 to $97.64 and back above $150 in roughly five months (source: FMP daily close).
  • The post-June-2025 uptrend phase shows a more orderly, lower-volatility advance: price moved from ~$150 to $225.73 over approximately 15 months with fewer and shallower pullbacks (source: FMP daily close, stats_analyze structural break).
  • First-order autocorrelation of 0.973 confirms strong momentum persistence: today's close is highly correlated with yesterday's, consistent with a trending rather than mean-reverting regime (source: stats_analyze).
  • Limitation: volatility regimes are inferred from the price series alone; no volume, options-implied, or cross-asset data was available to corroborate (source: analyst judgement).
04

Key Technical Levels: $195–200 Support, $230–237 Resistance

NVDA Notable Price Levels (as of 2026-09-08)

LevelPrice (USD)Basis
52-week high236.54FMP quote, yearHigh
Current close225.73FMP quote, 2026-09-08
50-day moving average210.57FMP quote, priceAvg50
200-day moving average196.68FMP quote, priceAvg200
90th percentile of closes209.25stats_analyze percentiles
Median close (2-yr)176.75stats_analyze descriptives
52-week low164.27FMP quote, yearLow
2-yr trough (Apr 2025)97.64stats_analyze, FMP daily close
  • The 200-day MA at $196.68 and the 90th percentile at $209.25 form a confluence support zone near $195–210; a close below this zone would signal a trend break (source: FMP quote, stats_analyze).
  • The 52-week high of $236.54 and the 2-year high of $228.45 (intraday) define the overhead resistance zone at $228–237; price is currently 4.6% below the 52-week high (source: FMP quote, stats_analyze).
  • The 52-week low of $164.27 represents major support; a breach would imply a re-entry into the 2025 corrective range (source: FMP quote).
  • These levels are descriptive, not predictive. Support and resistance derived from a single price series without volume confirmation carry limited reliability (source: analyst judgement).
05

Recent Price Action Is Constructive: Above Both Moving Averages, Approaching Year High

  • NVDA closed at $225.73 on 2026-09-08, 7.2% above its 50-day MA ($210.57) and 14.8% above its 200-day MA ($196.68) (source: FMP quote).
  • The daily change was −2.0% (−$4.63), a modest pullback within an otherwise constructive trend; the day's range was $224.85–$233.71 (source: FMP quote).
  • Price is within 4.6% of the 52-week high of $236.54, suggesting the stock is testing the upper boundary of its two-year range (source: FMP quote).
  • The positive slope since the June 2025 structural break (+0.34/day) and autocorrelation of 0.973 indicate the uptrend remains intact as of the data date (source: stats_analyze).
  • Market capitalization: $5.47 trillion (source: FMP quote).
  • This is a description of where price sits relative to its own history, not a forecast. Short-term direction cannot be predicted with confidence from chart patterns alone (source: analyst judgement).

Sources

  1. FMP — Historical prices NVDA fmp
  2. FMP — Quote NVDA fmp

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