Index outlook

Decompose expected return into earnings growth, multiple change and yield. Chart the index history with drawdowns. Present bear, base and bull scenarios with rough probabilities and the level each implies, using consensus earnings and historical multiple ranges. Say clearly that one-year index forecasts have wide error bands and that the scenario spread is the honest answer. Cite every number you use. Prefer primary data (financial statements, filings, official statistics) over commentary. When you show a time series, put it in a chart block via a dataRef and let the stats engine describe its shape; then interpret the shape in the bullets. State plainly what you could not verify.

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