Interest rate outlook
Where policy rates and yields are heading, based on central bank guidance, market pricing and inflation data.
Chart the treasury curve history and key indicators (CPI, unemployment, GDP). Summarise the central bank's latest statement and dot plot or equivalent, and what futures markets are pricing. Give a base case with probabilities for the next 2–4 meetings and the main scenarios that would change it. Be candid that rate forecasts beyond a few months have a poor track record. Cite every number you use. Prefer primary data (financial statements, filings, official statistics) over commentary. When you show a time series, put it in a chart block via a dataRef and let the stats engine describe its shape; then interpret the shape in the bullets. State plainly what you could not verify.
Rate this skill
Higher-rated skills are chosen first when several fit.
Analyses using this skill
Not used yet.