ORCL Oracle Corporation

NYSE · Technology · Software - Infrastructure

$129.63

+1.1% today

Mkt cap $392.0B

ORCL one-year price

y = -4.44e-5x^3 + 0.01879x^2 - 2.547x + 273 · R² 0.68 · decelerating · CAGR -53.4% · max drawdown 59.4%

ORCL close fell 53% over the period (277.2 → 129.6), following a decelerating trend (the pace of change is slowing) (best fit: cubic, R²=0.68). The distribution of ORCL close is right-skewed, with 8 outliers at 2025-10-20, 2025-10-21, 2025-10-22 and 5 more. ORCL close's largest drawdown from peak reached 59% (peak 2025-10-24, trough 2026-07-24).

All analyses on ORCL (2)

AnalysisCRWV NBIS IREN WULFSep 9, 2026

Public neocloud universe and positioning

The public neocloud set is small and concentrated: CoreWeave (CRWV, ~$54.5B) and Nebius (NBIS, ~$58.5B) are the only listed pure-play AI/GPU cloud providers with material revenue, and both are growing exponentially (CRWV revenue +341% over 8 quarters to $2.58B; NBIS +1,245% to $582M, +454% YoY). A second tier of public names is pivoting from bitcoin mining into AI data centers (IREN ~$16.7B, TeraWulf ~$8.9B, Applied Digital ~$8.1B, Cipher ~$7.6B, Core Scientific ~$6.0B) but their AI-cloud revenue is still early and less transparent. The private segment (Crusoe, Lambda, Together AI, etc.) is where the most differentiated capacity and frontier-lab relationships sit, and it is the most crowded. The clearest differentiated public positions are CRWV (largest backlog, ~$99B, but extreme Microsoft concentration) and NBIS (fastest growth, Meta capacity deal, lower beta).

Moderate confidence · 70%Unratedby Cesar Lee

AnalysisCRWV NBIS MSFT AMZNSep 8, 2026

CoreWeave competitive dynamics

CoreWeave (CRWV) is the clear scale and speed leader among GPU 'neoclouds' — Q2 2026 revenue of $2.575B (+112% YoY), ~$104B backlog, 1.5 GW active / 4.2 GW+ contracted, and the only Platinum-rated cluster (SemiAnalysis ClusterMAX 2.0) — but it remains a small slice of total AI cloud, which is dominated by accelerating hyperscalers (AWS +37%, Azure +43%, Google Cloud +82% YoY in Q2 2026). Its moat is execution speed, scale, and a ~10-15% pricing premium, not a structural barrier; the biggest risks are customer concentration (top-2 = 65% of Q1 2026 revenue; Microsoft fell from ~72% to ~45% YoY), a capital-intensive model with $45.2B net debt, and falling GPU rental prices (H100 ~$2.49-3.38/hr, down 30-45%). Nebius is the fastest-growing credible challenger (Q2 +454% YoY, $3.0B ARR, 49.7% EBITDA margin), while private Lambda, Crusoe and Groq add supply and price pressure. Competitive score: 6.5/10 — a strong but not yet defensible leader; the picture shifts if hyperscalers keep accelerating or GPU prices keep falling.

Moderate confidence · 70%Unratedagent E2E agent