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AnalysisCRWVskill: technical-chart-readSep 8, 2026 · agent E2E agent

CoreWeave technical chart read

Prompt: Read the CoreWeave (CRWV) price chart as of 2026-09-08 for a 12-month investment recommendation. Identify trend, regime, drawdown, volatility, support and resistance zones, and any clear entry, exit or stop levels. Output a technical view that can be used to set entry, exit, stop-loss and terminal sell conditions.

Moderate confidence · 55%

On confidence. The chart structure, levels and volatility statistics are directly computed from FMP daily closes and are solid, but technical levels have weak predictive power, the stock is extremely volatile (97–113% annualized, beta 7.41), and the current move is an earnings gap whose content I could not fully verify.

Summary

CoreWeave (CRWV) closed 2026-09-08 at $99.83, +11.7% on 1.8x average volume after an earnings-driven surge, putting price above both its 50-DMA ($85.62) and 200-DMA ($91.47) for the first time since the June 2025 blow-off top. The 18-month chart shows a parabolic run to a $183.58 close (June 2025), a 67% drawdown to $60.82 (2026-07-29), and a +37% V-rebound off that low; the 12-month window is a $61–$143 range with no trend (R²=0.38) and 97% annualized volatility. A 12-month trade is constructible: entry at or below ~$100 (or a pullback to $91–92), stop below $83 (under the 50-DMA and August pullback zone, -17% risk), targets at $116 (R:R 1.1), $125 (R:R 1.7) and $143 (R:R 2.9), with terminal sell on a close above $143 or below $83. This is a description of chart structure, not a forecast: price patterns have weak predictive power, and with ~6% daily volatility and beta 7.41, position size — not direction — is the main risk.

01

CRWV gap-up puts price above both moving averages — a 12-month trade is constructible but high-risk

  • Close 2026-09-08: $99.83, +11.7% on the day; volume 50.9M vs 28.4M 3-month average (1.8x) — FMP quote.
  • Price is +16.6% above the 50-DMA ($85.62) and +9.1% above the 200-DMA ($91.47); the 50-DMA is still below the 200-DMA, so the moving-average alignment is not yet bullish — FMP quote.
  • 12-month return +6.7% ($93.55 → $99.83); 12-month annualized volatility 97% — stats engine on FMP daily closes.
  • 52-week range $60.55–$153.20; market cap $54.5B; beta 7.41 — FMP quote and profile.
  • Catalyst: earnings-driven surge — 'CoreWeave stock soars after earnings and an important inflection point' (Yahoo Finance) and 'rallying today... bouncing sharply from levels near its recent lows' (Investing.com), both 2026-09-08.
02

18-month chart: blow-off top at $183.58, 67% de-rating, now a V-shaped rebound

CRWV daily close, 2025-03-28 to 2026-09-08 (FMP)
y = 1.37e-5x^3 - 0.008225x^2 + 1.335x + 53.96 · R² 0.26 · volatile no trend · CAGR 88.0% · max drawdown 66.9%
  • Rose from $40 (2025-03-28) to a closing high of $183.58 (June 2025), then fell 67% to $60.82 (2026-07-29) — stats engine on FMP closes.
  • Structural break at 2025-07-10: daily slope went from +$2.35 to -$0.09 — the top of the parabola — stats engine.
  • Distribution outliers flagged at 2025-06-20 and 2025-06-23, i.e., the parabolic top days — stats engine.
  • 18-month CAGR 88% with 113% annualized volatility; 25 turning points — stats engine.
  • Current price $99.83 sits ~46% below the June 2025 closing high of $183.58 and ~64% above the July 2026 low of $60.82 — FMP closes.
03

The 12-month window is a $61–$143 range with no trend — today's gap is a breakout attempt

CRWV daily close, trailing 12 months (FMP)
y = -2.99e-5x^3 + 0.01239x^2 - 1.5x + 143.7 · R² 0.38 · volatile no trend · CAGR 6.7% · max drawdown 57.5%
  • +6.7% over 12 months; best-fit R² only 0.38 — the stats engine finds no clear trend, i.e., a range regime — stats engine.
  • Largest 12-month drawdown 57% (peak 2025-10-09 → trough 2026-07-29) — stats engine.
  • Mean close $97.66, median $93.18, right-skewed distribution — today's $99.83 close is in the upper half of the 12-month range — stats engine.
  • Trend shift at 2025-11-06: slope +$0.40/day → +$0.06/day — the post-October rally faded into the range — stats engine.
  • Range bounds from closes: $60.82 low (2026-07-29) to $143.08 high (2025-10-09); the 52-week intraday high per FMP quote is $153.20, so intraday extremes exceed close-based levels.
04

The June–July downtrend (-20%) decelerated after 2026-08-03; the rebound is +37% off the low

CRWV daily close, 2026-06-01 to 2026-09-08 (FMP)
y = 0.01958x^2 - 1.641x + 116.9 · R² 0.48 · volatile no trend · CAGR -56.1% · max drawdown 51.3%
  • Fell 20% from $124.82 (2026-06-01) to $99.83 (2026-09-08); 51% drawdown from the June 1 peak to the $60.82 low on 2026-07-29 — stats engine.
  • Trend shift at 2026-08-03: daily slope improved from -$1.15 to -$0.28 — the decline decelerated before the rebound — stats engine.
  • Rebound leg: $73.06 (2026-07-20) → $99.83 (2026-09-08) = +36.6% in seven weeks; the 2026-08-13 high of $106.29 was rejected, the 2026-08-26 pullback to $88.01 held, and price has since reclaimed $100 — FMP closes.
  • 3-month annualized volatility 105%; 7 turning points in 69 sessions — stats engine.
05

Key levels: support at $91.5 / $85.6 / $83; resistance at $106–108, $114–116, $125, $143

Support and resistance zones (close-based, FMP daily data unless noted)

ZoneLevel ($)Basis
Resistance R3143.08 (intraday 153.20)12-month closing high 2025-10-09; 52-week intraday high per FMP quote
Resistance R2124.822026-06-01 closing high, start of the June–July decline
Resistance R1114.19–1162026-04-29 close $114.19 plus round number
Resistance R0106.29–107.732026-08-13 close $106.29; recent intraday high $107.73
Pivot99.83Current close 2026-09-08
Support S191.47200-day moving average (FMP quote)
Support S285.6250-day moving average (FMP quote)
Support S383–882026-08-26 pullback close $88.01 and zone below the 50-DMA
Support S471.77–73.06Late-July 2026 consolidation (2026-07-31 close $71.77)
Support S560.55–60.8252-week low (FMP quote) / 2026-07-29 close $60.82
  • All levels are derived from FMP daily closes; intraday extremes differ (e.g., 52-week high $153.20 vs closing high $143.08) — FMP quote vs data:2.
  • The $85–88 zone is the confluence of the 50-DMA and the August pullback — the most important near-term support for the rebound.
  • A close back above $106–108 would confirm the rebound has absorbed the August rejection; a close below $85 would invalidate it.
06

12-month trade plan: entry ≤$100, stop below $83, targets $116 / $125 / $143, terminal sell on close >$143 or <$83

Entry / exit / stop framework (levels from FMP; % and R:R are arithmetic on those levels)

ActionLevel ($)Risk / rewardRationale
Entry (aggressive)99.83 (current)—Post-earnings gap, above 50-DMA and 200-DMA; 1.8x volume
Entry (patient)91–92—Pullback to the 200-DMA ($91.47) before committing
Stop (primary)85-14.9%Close below the 50-DMA ($85.62)
Stop (hard)83-16.9%Below 50-DMA and the August pullback zone; thesis broken
Target T1116+16.2%, R:R 1.12026-04-29 close $114.19 + round number
Target T2125+25.2%, R:R 1.72026-06-01 closing high $124.82
Target T3143+43.2%, R:R 2.92025-10-09 closing high $143.08
Terminal sell (upside)Close > 143—Run toward the $153.20 52-week intraday high; take profits into strength
Terminal sell (downside)Close < 83—Rebound invalidated; exit regardless of news
  • R:R figures are simple arithmetic on the FMP levels above (e.g., (116-99.83)/99.83 = +16.2%; (85-99.83)/99.83 = -14.9%); the model-evaluation tool returned n/a for this spec, so I verified the math by hand.
  • Implied daily volatility is ~6% (97% annualized ÷ √252, stats engine) — a stop can be gapped through; size the position so a -17% loss is acceptable.
  • Price patterns have weak predictive power: this framework describes the current chart structure and conditional levels, not a forecast of where the price will go.
07

Caveats: extreme volatility, an earnings-driven gap, and close-based levels

  • Beta 7.41 (FMP profile) and 97–113% annualized volatility (stats engine) make this a position-sizing problem first and a direction problem second.
  • The +11.7% move is earnings-driven (Yahoo Finance: 'soars after earnings and an important inflection point'); I could not verify the full earnings content or the exact release date, and gap-ups of this size often partially retrace.
  • All levels are close-based (FMP daily closes); intraday extremes differ — e.g., 52-week high $153.20 vs closing high $143.08 (FMP quote vs data:2).
  • Could not verify: options flow, short interest, and the exact earnings figures behind the gap; the news search tool failed on one call and I relied on headline snippets.
  • Short-term market direction cannot be predicted with confidence; the plan on the previous slide is a conditional framework to be executed only if the stated levels are respected.

Part of “CoreWeave buy recommendation”, alongside

Sibling analyses feed the same synthesis; open it to see how they were combined.

AnalysisCRWVSep 8, 2026

CoreWeave management and governance

CoreWeave's management is executing a high-conviction, capital-intensive AI-infrastructure buildout: revenue grew exponentially from $584M (Q2'25) to $2.58B (Q2'26) and 2026 guidance was raised to $12.4–13.2B, but the model is funded almost entirely by debt and equity issuance, with net debt of $45.2B (≈17.5x quarterly revenue) and FCF burn of $5.74B in Q2'26. Leadership is credible on the finance side (CFO Nitin Agrawal ex-Google Cloud/Mapbox) but CEO Michael Intrator has no prior public-company operating track record, and customer concentration in OpenAI/Microsoft is a material, unquantified risk. For a 12-month view this is a HOLD: management quality is adequate-to-good at scaling and raising capital, but the debt load, extreme beta (7.41), and single-customer dependency mean the equity is a levered bet on continued hyperscaler AI capex, not a quality-compounding business.

Moderate confidence · 62%Unratedagent E2E agent

Sources

  1. FMP — Profile CRWV fmp
  2. FMP — Quote CRWV fmp
  3. FMP — Historical prices CRWV fmp
  4. FMP — Historical prices CRWV fmp
  5. CRWV Stock Takes a 13% Hit in 3 Months web
  6. CoreWeave (CRWV) Stock price today - quote & chart web
  7. Why CoreWeave Stock Is Down 11.8% web
  8. CoreWeave (CRWV) shares surged following the company's ... web
  9. CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock (CRWV) web
  10. CoreWeave shares jumped in extended trading on Tuesday ... web
  11. Why is CoreWeave stock rallying today? web
  12. CoreWeave stock soars after earnings and 'an important ... web
  13. CRWV: CoreWeave - Stock Price, Quote and News web
  14. FMP — Historical prices CRWV fmp
  15. FMP — Historical prices CRWV fmp

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