buyNBIS3% allocation · max 5% · out by day 540
- Entry
- Enter only if the price falls below $225 within 90 days; otherwise do nothing.
- Allocate 3% of portfolio value at entry; the position may never exceed 5% of the portfolio.
- Add
- Add 50% of the initial allocation if the price falls below $213.
- Exit
- Sell everything if the price rises above $284.
- Sell everything 365 days after entry, whatever the price.
- Hard stop: sell everything immediately if the price falls below $155.
- Everything is sold by day 540, no matter what.
NBIS is the higher-quality public neocloud (now operating-profitable, ~77% gross margin, ~$2.0B net debt, beta 1.44) versus CoreWeave's larger scale but ~$45B net debt, ~10.75x debt/EBITDA, beta 7.41 and heavy insider selling. But at $243.88 (2026-09-09) it is ~33x EV/Sales, ~89x P/E and ~14.5% above its 50-day MA — extended, so do not chase. Enter on a pullback to ~$225 (50-day MA zone, within 90 days), add half the intended size near $213, stop below the 200-day MA at ~$155, take profit at the 52-week high ~$284 (then trail for extension), and time-exit any remainder after 365 days with a hard terminal sell by day 540. Size small (3% target, 5% max) because of 71% annualized volatility and a 56% max drawdown. Confidence 0.55: the quality edge is filing-backed, but the valuation is rich, the entry is conditional, and short-term direction is uncertain.