Public neocloud long-term growth comparison
CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS) are the only two publicly traded pure-play neoclouds, both growing exponentially (CRWV +341% over 8 quarters to $2.58B/qtr; NBIS +1,245% to $582M/qtr). CRWV ranks #1 for likelihood of sustained 10-year growth (~60% confidence) due to its ~$100B RPO, diversifying customer base (45% top customer), and scale advantages, but carries $45.2B net debt and negative FCF. NBIS ranks #2 (~50% confidence) with a far cleaner balance sheet (net debt $2.0B vs $45.2B) and faster growth rate, but faces existential 83% single-customer concentration. The binding constraint over the next decade is power/gigawatt access and sustained AI capex demand, not GPU supply. Both are priced for perfection and carry high single-customer risk that is not fully reflected in valuation.